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Should Holland beat Uruguay, the World Cup is all but won

| 06.07.2010

Now that the World Cup final is winking on the horizon, it’s probably time to go over some trends that have marked out winners in the past.

The omens look good for Uruguay, in that there have been four finals taking place during years ending in “zero” (1930, 1950, 1970, 1990), and Uruguay have won two of them (1930, 1950).

Their odds of adding a third are 11/1.

Plus, pointing even more markedly at a South American victory, there have been alternating South American and European champions since 1962.

Brazil in 1962, England in 1966, Brazil in 1970, West Germany in 1974, Argentina in 1978, Italy in 1982, Argentina in 1986, West Germany in 1990, Brazil in 1994, France in 1998, Brazil in 2002, Italy in 2006.

With Italy taking the crown for Europe last time around, it’s South America’s turn. Or could a 48 year old trend be shattered here?

If so, the heavens would be unlikely to shine on Spain.

In six of the last seven tournaments, either Germany or Brazil have featured in the final. With Brazil out, Germany will be keen to continue that particular tradition.

Their odds of meeting Uruguay in the final are 6/1.

In light of Euro 2008 – where Spain met Germany in the final – one fact of note is that three of the last four European Championship runners up have gone on to outperform the European Champions at World Cups.

Germany (runners up at Euro 2008) have reason to be confident.

Rather fittingly, Spain would have to emulate the West German 1974 team to win the World Cup following success at the Euros. It can be done. But has only happened once.

Spain’s odds of winning the tournament are 15/8.

As for the Dutch – should they make it past Uruguay, they will be pleased to know that no team has ever made it to three finals without winning the thing. This would be their third (following 1974 and 1978).

Their odds of winning are 2/1.

Should Germany meet Holland in the final, this would be only the third time in the history of the World Cup that a previous final has repeated itself, after Argentina vs Germany (1986, 1990), and Brazil vs Italy (1970, 1994).

The odds of a repeat of the 1974 final are 6/4.

Which trend looks most likely to win through? See the full Tournament Betting market.



Ed Needham