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16.50 Aintree – Jewson Novices’ form can trump the Arkle chance

| 07.04.2011

The Totepool Manifesto Chase is appearing at Aintree for just the third time leaving punters with very little trends to work with.

It’s a race that pits two beaten Cheltenham Festival favourites – Medermit in the Arkle and Wishfull Thinking in the Jewson Novices’ – against each other, although young pretender Royal Charm (10/3) is one to look out for.

Royal Charm is an interesting bet at 10/3 having finished third behind Restless Harry at Cheltenham in January in his only Grade Two start, but preference has to be with Medermit (2/1) and Wishfull Thinking (2/1) in a race in which the better horses usually come out on top.

Both previous winners were officially rated 147+ and the 1-2-3 in last year’s renewal were all officially rated 150+.

Both Wishfull Thinking (155) and Medermit (155) are officially rated over 147 but considering both of the previous winners had run in the Arkle the month before, Medermit looks the standout pick of the seven runners.

The trends from the first two races suggest that Medermit should hold the edge over all six of his rivals, and having won at Aintree before – none of his rivals have – it’s hard to oppose the beaten Arkle favourite.

But It is a race in which speed is of the essence and the step-up back to 2m 4f could count against Medermit, especially as he will have to come from behind as a hold up horse.

The more prominently ridden Wishfull Thinking, who has registered the fastest time over this distance in this field, looks the horse to beat and we’re siding with the Philip Hobbs-trained eight-year-old.

A case for Royal Charm has to be made though and the last two winners both went off third-favourite, and as a prominent runner, he may be able to hold off a late charge from Medermit to gain a place.

A £20 stake on Wishfull Thinking winning the Manifesto Chase would return £60. New customers can sign up here to get £60 in free bets.

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Author

Robbie Morris

Robbie studied sports journalism at the University of Gloucestershire, an establishment chosen for its proximity to Cheltenham racecourse, where he was a season ticket holder. Upon graduation, Robbie was a contributor to GolfPunk, a national magazine aimed at ridding golf of its traditionalist image, before joining the news.ladbrokes team.