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16:00 Epsom – no lottery as Camelot can bound to Derby glory

| 02.06.2012

Although the last two odds-on favourites have been beaten in the Epsom Derby, shocks are largely rare and Camelot may not be the most original pick, but he can maintain Aidan O’Brien’s stranglehold of the Classics with a win at 1/2.

Shergar was the last odds-on favourite to take Derby success in 1981 and all three to have been sent off at similar prices since have been beaten.

Entrepreneur was the last of these in 1997, but it is worth mentioning that the average winning price of the last ten winners is just 4/1, showing that it pays to side with those towards the head of the Epsom Derby odds.

Camelot certainly has speed as he was victorious in the 2,000 Guineas over 1m and his breeding suggests that he should be even more of a force over an extra 4f.

There is no reason to suggest that the early pace will be particularly quick which will help Camelot, while he is also the only previous Group One winner in the field.

Bonfire is next in the betting at 5/1 and his victory in the Dante Stakes, a leading Derby trial, has given his chances a boost.

But this was a tough race, he also has doubts over stamina and maybe more so than other contenders, there are concerns as to how he will handle Epsom.

Astrology will be a popular each-way selection at 8/1 and this seems fair enough for two reasons.

Firstly, O’Brien’s second and third-string runners have a knack of running above expectations in big races, with Homecoming Queen and Was already surprise Classic winners for the yard this season.

Furthermore, he was dominant in winning the Dee Stakes by 11 lengths, even though this may have been against weak opposition.

Horses have run into the places at big prices in the Derby in the past ten years and Thought Worthy looks capable of performing well at 16/1.

He is a full brother to former St Leger winner Lucarno and so stamina will be no issue and the same horse previously took fourth in a Derby.



Craig Kemp

Craig has written for Ladbrokes since the 2010 World Cup, having previously gained a Media & Sports Journalism degree and contributed to publications including the Racing Post. His main areas of interest are horse racing and UFC, but he is also an avid X Factor gambler and likes nothing more than indulging in a spot of Hip Hop Karaoke.