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AC Milan v Roma: Under 2.5 goals looks a sensible San Siro bet

| 16.02.2013

Rudi Garcia takes his high-flying Roma side to the famous surroundings of the San Siro for this BT Sport, Serie A showdown and although they remain unbeaten, the Giallorossi have not been finding the net with anything like the regularity they were earlier in the season.

If you had to side with a winner in this heavyweight Italian contest, then it would be the 15/8 Romans in the red and yellow corner, rather than the 29/20 Milanese in the red and black corner.

However, the closeness of the prices gives a clue that the more astute bet in the match odds market could be well be placed the way of the draw at odds of 9/4.

After all, second-place Roma had drawn their last four matches in Serie A before edging past Fiorentina 2-1, while Milan have also shown a lack of killer instinct recently, drawing four of their last six in all competitions, which includes their last two.

Ever since Roma’s evergreen and ever-important Francesco Totti was injured in mid-October against Napoli, the goals which had propelled them to a Serie A record 10 straight wins have dried up somewhat.

Without their creative fulcrum, who should actually be available for this game, but devoid of any match sharpness, Garcia’s men have only scored an average of exactly one goal per game.

This has meant a punt on under 2.5 goals would have landed in six of their last seven league games, an outcome which can be backed at 3/4 here.

Meanwhile, two of the last three renewals have slinked under the 1.5 goals line – a more profitable 23/10 with Ladbrokes.

The fact Milan have kept it lean in front of goals by scoring exactly once in four of their last five home league games – could point more daring punters towards the 1-1, at a tasty 11/2.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.

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Christian Crowther

Give Christian a sport with anything remotely spherical in it and he’ll happily while away the hours watching it on the box. However, he’d much prefer writing about, playing or betting on golf, football, cricket, tennis, snooker.... you get the picture.