Home La Liga record gives Barca hope of Champions League history
There can be little argument that Barcelona had this type of heavy defeat coming after playing awfully away to AC Milan and then failing to win either of their two legs with PSG, but if anyone can produce the unlikeliest of comebacks, it has to be them.
Never before has a 4-0 deficit been reversed in any previous European tie and based on this, the 16/1 on Barcelona qualifying for the final at the expense of Bayern Munich may appear on the skinny side.
However, four-goal first-leg losses have been overcome on two occasions, one of which was achieved by Barca’s rivals Real Madrid.
Real Madrid were beaten 5-1 in the away leg of a UEFA Cup tie by Borussia Monchengladbach in 1985, but recovered to win 4-0 at home to progress.
The other occasion was in the same competition in the previous year, when Partizan Belgrade also won 4-0 in a second leg on home soil, having previously been thumped 6-2 in their away tie.
This should give Barcelona a small slither of hope of bouncing back, alongside their fine record at the Nou Camp in La Liga this season.
In seven of their 16 home games they have managed at least four goals and have scored five or more on five occasions, including against top-four candidates Real Sociedad and highly-regarded Athletic Bilbao.
Meanwhile, they have won 15 of their 16 home league fixtures, with a 2-2 draw with Real Madrid the only anomaly.
Barcelona’s odds are 9/10 just to win the second leg with Bayern and this looks a noteworthy price as the Germans are unlikely to go all-out for the victory.
Getting a defence out that is capable of shutting out Bayern could be one of their biggest problems, with Jordi Alba’s petulant booking in the closing stages meaning he is suspended for the return.
With Carles Puyol and Javier Mascherano also doubtful because of injury, another makeshift line-up may well be in order for Tito Vilanova.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.