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Aston Villa v Liverpool: Better option than big-priced hosts

| 23.08.2013

Given the problems that Aston Villa have posed to Arsenal and Chelsea already this season, their price of 14/5 to beat Liverpool may be regarded as one of the best bets of the second full round of Premier League fixtures.

However, it is worth noting that Villa were away in both of these games and against opposition that committed numbers forward, which allowed Paul Lambert’s men to strike efficiently on the break.

Now back on their own patch for the first time this season, Villa’s counter-attacking strategy may not be as effective. They only won five league games at Villa Park in the last campaign.

Another point of interest is that Villa only kept four home clean sheets at home last season, while Liverpool were not much betting at shutting out the opposition on their travels, doing so on only five occasions.

Therefore, with the last three between this pair also seeing each defence breached, the safer money on this fixture will be on both teams to score at 4/6.

These fixtures have additionally seen the home team score exactly one goal and not go on to claim maximum points.

This could enhance the prospects of any of the following correct scorelines coming true – 1-1 (6/1), 1-2 (17/2) or 1/3 (16/1).

With three goals in Villa’s opening two games, it is no surprise to see Christian Benteke priced up as the favourite to score first at 11/2, although he doesn’t head the market at 13/8 to be on target at any time in the 90 minutes.

Instead, this honour falls on Daniel Sturridge, who is 11/8 to be on target in the match and a potentially lucrative 6/1 to bag the opener, as he did in Liverpool’s win over Stoke, while Villa have conceded first in both of their opening Premier League fixtures.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.

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Craig Kemp

Craig has written for Ladbrokes since the 2010 World Cup, having previously gained a Media & Sports Journalism degree and contributed to publications including the Racing Post. His main areas of interest are horse racing and UFC, but he is also an avid X Factor gambler and likes nothing more than indulging in a spot of Hip Hop Karaoke.