15:30 Ascot: Trust Bolger and back Dawn Approach
Jim Bolger is 100 per cent happy with Dawn Approach ahead of the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes and this may be enough of a reason to think that the 2000 Guineas will go out with a bang on British Champions Day.
There is a strong possibility that this will be Dawn Approach’s last race, with comments suggesting that a four-year-old campaign is unlikely.
It is 5/2 that Dawn Approach wins the QEII Stakes and he is the only horse in the 12-runner field that is a course winner at Ascot.
The obvious doubts over his chances relate to whether he will settle well enough in the early stages and whether he is fully over an illness, as antibiotics were needed to cure a mucus problem that was discovered after Dawn Approach’s below-par fifth at Deauville last time.
Timeform’s adjusted ratings have Dawn Approach at 143, which is only 1lb above two of his nearest rivals.
Therefore, should he be below his best, there is plenty of opposition waiting to pounce and seven of the entries already have a Group 1 victory under their belts.
Exactly which horse is the main danger is ground dependant, with any rain in the final preliminaries a big positive for Maxios (7/2), while drier conditions is what is wanted for the appropriately named Soft Falling Rain (6/1).
It is hard to get too excited about anything other than this trio, bearing in mind that all of the last 10 winners have come from the first three in the betting and none have gone off at a longer price than 5/1.
From seven females to run in the QEII in the last decade, three have made the frame and this enhances the appeal of Elusive Kate from an each-way perspective at 14/1.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.
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