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Lack of away goal to cost Bayern Munich dear against Real Madrid

| 29.04.2014

90 minutes separate Bayern Munich and Real Madrid from a place in the Champions League final but it’s the Spanish side that hold the advantage after the first leg, thanks to a 1-0 win at the Bernabeu.

That slim victory was the epitome of a backs-to-the-wall performance, with Pep Guardiola’s German outfit completing twice the number of passes than Madrid and enjoying 71 per cent of the possession.

For all their dominance of the ball though, Bayern could not find a way through the wall of white in front of them and it’s their lack of an away goal that could ultimately see their Champions League title defence fall at the penultimate hurdle.

Madrid travel to the Allianz Arena priced as the 7/2 outsiders for victory in this semi-final second leg, with a draw available at an industry best price 16/5 and a Munich victory a 7/10 chance.

The one-goal advantage Los Blancos enjoy ensures the favourites tag flips their way in the market to qualify, with their chances given odds of 3/5 with Ladbrokes as opposed to the 5/4 offered for Der FCB.

Given Bayern’s recent defensive record, and the sheer pace at Madrid’s disposal on the counter, the price on Carlo Ancelotti’s side to both win and advance to the final should be snapped up in equal measure.

Munich have only kept one clean sheet in their last 10 matches, which came at the home of the Bundesliga’s bottom club Braunschweig, while Madrid have only seen their array of attacking talent fail to breach a defence once in the last 33 outings.

Since wrapping up the league title, Bayern have failed to win five of their nine matches with their Spanish leader opting to rotate his starting line-up.

That disruption has lead to inconsistent performances and with his first-choice players out of the matchday groove, a lack of away goal will cost Guardiola a crack at the Champions League trophy.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.

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Matt Wiggins

No idyllic sound comes close to leather on willow for Matt, whose previous experience includes stints with Spin Magazine and Surrey County Cricket Club. It's not just cricket that interests him though, with football, golf, tennis and any American sport not played on ice all high on his list of favourites.