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Barca’s home record means Atletico wrong as title outsiders

| 15.05.2014

The scenario couldn’t be any clearer going to the final day of the La Liga season. If Barcelona beat Atletico Madrid at the Nou Camp then they are champions. Any other result and Diego Simeone’s men will lift a first Spanish top-flight title since 1991.

Barcelona’s odds are 5/6 to get the victory they require and they have triumphed in 16 of their 18 home matches in La Liga this season. The Catalan giants have also beaten Atletico at the Nou Camp in the last six La Liga seasons.

However, there are numerous reasons to believe that Atletico can bring a halt to this losing streak and be crowned champions, which can be backed at 1/1.

Firstly, Atletico have already avoided defeat at the Nou Camp twice this season, gaining a 0-0 draw in the second leg of the Spanish Super Cup and then a 1-1 draw in the opening leg of their Champions League quarter final.

Another draw between the pair this time is available at 11/4.

Secondly Barcelona don’t have the best track record when it comes to winning their final home game of a league season.

In the last seven campaigns, they have only secured maximum points in their last Nou Camp clash on three occasions, with two draws and two defeats the other results.

Meanwhile, the La Liga fixture compilers certainly have it in for Atletico, as this is the fourth successive season that they will play away from the Vicente Calderon on the final day.

Not that it is impacting their results though, given they have beaten Real Mallorca, Villarreal and Real Zaragoza in these outings.

For those fancying Barcelona to pick up the title that their midfield lynchpin Xavi believes they deserve, it may be worth expecting them to go on a goal spree.

On the three most recent occasions that Barca have won their final home game, they have scored exactly four goals. By covering some bases, a 4-0 win is 25/1, 4-1 is the same price, 4-2 is 40/1 and an exciting 4-3 can be backed at 90/1.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.

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Craig Kemp

Craig has written for Ladbrokes since the 2010 World Cup, having previously gained a Media & Sports Journalism degree and contributed to publications including the Racing Post. His main areas of interest are horse racing and UFC, but he is also an avid X Factor gambler and likes nothing more than indulging in a spot of Hip Hop Karaoke.