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Newark latest betting news & Ladbrokes prediction

| 05.06.2014

Here are the latest prices on today’s Newark by-election. Ladbrokes will have betting available until at least 6pm.

newark5

The prices had been steady for a couple of days, but we took a £5,000 bet on the Tories at 1/10 on Wednesday evening and have shortened them up to 1/14.

Plenty of people have had a bet on Bus Pass Elvis to beat the Liberal Democrats – that’s now 16/1 from 25/1. I’m not too worried.

Here’s my stab at a prediction of the result. It’s based on the bets we’ve taken, plus the feedback and opinion I picked up from voters, party workers and candidates on my two days in Newark.

  • 39% Conservatives
  • 30% UKIP
  • 16% Labour
  • 5% Paul Baggaley (Ind)
  • 4% Liberal Democrats
  • 3% Greens
  • 55% Turnout

That would equate to a Tory majority of around 3,500 votes.

Here’s how the bets taken beaks down;

newarkbets

And here’s how the money staked has gone;

newark money

So, fewer but much bigger bets on a Conservative win.

 

 

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Author

Matthew Shaddick

Matthew Shaddick has been Head of Poliical Betting at Ladbrokes since 2008. He's a writer and odds-maker with particular expertise in UK and US elections.
Also known to dabble in music, literary and other out of the way betting markets. Sometimes issues tips on horse racing and football, which are best ignored.