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Who will (and won’t) survive a Lib Dem meltdown?

| 16.06.2014

How badly will the Liberal Democrats fare at the general election? Here are Ladbrokes’ latest odds.


Until quite recently, a lot of people assumed they would hold on to most of their seats, despite their national opinion poll ratings being in single figures. Now the betting market is not so sure. They hit a low of 6% in one recent YouGov poll – local organisational strength isn’t going to overcome that sort of national picture. We are also expecting a Lord Ashcroft survey of Lib Dem/Tory marginals soon – if that is as bad as some have predicted, there could be a further shake up in the odds.

In the event of a disaster, who will be left standing to take over from Clegg? Here are the odds on next leader:


Taking the individual constituency odds, here are the chances of selected contenders surviving as MPs.

  • Alexander 43%
  • Browne 46%
  • Davey 64%
  • Hughes 68%
  • Webb 72%
  • Clegg 72%
  • Laws 73%
  • Lamb 81%
  • Cable 82%
  • Farron 87%
  • Kennedy 87%
  • Carmichael 94%

We’ve seen a little bit of money recently for Charles Kennedy to return as leader at 33/1. In the event of the party being left with a handful of MPs, perhaps he’ll be the only plausible candidate left. Farron still looks like the next in line, assuming Clegg isn’t ditched before the election.



Matthew Shaddick

Matthew Shaddick has been Head of Poliical Betting at Ladbrokes since 2008. He's a writer and odds-maker with particular expertise in UK and US elections.
Also known to dabble in music, literary and other out of the way betting markets. Sometimes issues tips on horse racing and football, which are best ignored.