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King of Stats: The Ballydoyle girl to side with in the Irish Oaks

| 09.07.2014

By royal decree, the King of Stats has taken back his thorny crown from the jester in anticipation of a smart-looking renewal of the Irish Oaks, at the Curragh as always.

Crack Classic-winning trainer Aidan O’Brien hasn’t taken any of the last five running’s of this race, having won all three between 2006-08.

The King of Ballydoyle has readied five of the expected 11 runners in this field, but will it be enough to see off Dermot Weld hotpot Tarfasha? Read on for our highness’ take on the County Kildare showpiece.

9 – Of the last 10 winners finished in the first two last time out

This crucial statistic helpfully gets rid of Ballybacka Queen, Beyond Brilliance,  Tapestry, Volume, Vote Often and Irish 1000 Guineas winner Marvellous,.

6 – Of those victors had won their previous races

It’s becoming all too apparent that it takes a filly or mare in flying form to land this Curragh 1m4f.

Weld’s 9/4 favourite Tarfasha, who finished second to Taghrooda in the Epsom Oaks, and Pat Dobbs’ interesting outsider Lustrous both go out of the window here, due to their failure to succeed last time out.

7 – Of the last 10 winners had won over 1m2f or further

We’re left with O’Brien’s 5/1 Bracelet and 20/1 Palace, plus rank outsider of the field Maid Of The Glens, at 66/1.

Neither Palace nor Maid Of The Glens have so much as raced over more than 1m1f in their short careers so far, and with Bracelet able to boast of a win over this distance last time out in the Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot, the Ballydoyle 5/1 shot gets our nod.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.

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Alex Fortune