The 11 seats Labour are set to gain in the North West
Published:
Ladbrokes now have general election constituency odds on all 75 seats in North West England.
Based on those odds, we think eleven seats will change hands in the region; all Labour gains.
| Seat | Winner 2010 | Maj % | Prediction |
| Lancaster & Fleetwood | Conservative | 0.8 | LAB GAIN |
| Morecambe & Lunesdale | Conservative | 2.0 | LAB GAIN |
| Carlisle | Conservative | 2.0 | LAB GAIN |
| Weaver Vale | Conservative | 2.3 | LAB GAIN |
| Warrington South | Conservative | 2.8 | LAB GAIN |
| Bury North | Conservative | 5.0 | LAB GAIN |
| Blackpool N & Cleveleys | Conservative | 5.3 | LAB GAIN |
| City of Chester | Conservative | 5.5 | LAB GAIN |
| Wirral West | Conservative | 6.2 | LAB GAIN |
| Manchester Withington | Lib-Dem | 4.2 | LAB GAIN |
| Burnley | Lib-Dem | 4.3 | LAB GAIN |
We’ve also got one seat in the “too close to call” column; Pendle which has the Tories and Labour as 10/11 joint favourites. I guess the most high-profile casualty if the odds are correct would be Esther McVey in Wirral West.
One of the most interesting seats still just about in the CON HOLD column is Rossendale & Darwen where Will Straw (son of Jack) is a narrow outsider to regain the seat for Labour.
The Liberal Democrats are forecast to hold on to their three seats in Cheshire along with Fortress Farron in Westmorland & Lonsdale. Manchester Withington looks like a formality for Labour, although we have seen some informed money for the Lib Dems to hold on in Burnley.
There are no particularly obvious targets for UKIP here; Ladbrokes rate their best chances as Ribble Valley and Blackpool South, both at 16/1
Here is the predicted new make up of the region after the election, along with the change from 2010:
- Lab 58 (+11)
- Cons 13 (-9)
- LD 4 (-2)
