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The numbers behind 3 top tips for the All Blacks’ trip to Wales

| 21.11.2014

By the end of the weekend Wales will have played the All Blacks for the 26th time since 1963 and, in all likelihood, they’ll have lost all 26 Tests.

Those in favour of making money from their misery ought to read on for the three best bets in Cardiff:

New Zealand -16 to win @ 5/4

Since Warren Gatland took over as coach back in 2007, Wales have faced the All Blacks six times, losing by 23, 12, 7 and 20 points in four Millennium Stadium fixtures, and going down by 19 and 35 points on the road.

A near full-strength Welsh side have been put through the ringer over the last fortnight, suffering a five-point loss to Australia and barely seeing off Fiji, while Steve Hansen was able to make 13 changes to his team between narrow victories over Scotland and England

All roads point to another big win for the All Blacks over Gatland’s men.

New Zealand to win by 16-20 points @ 5/1

If you add up all the Gatland-era Wales losing margins against the All Blacks and divide by six, they come out at just above 19 points on average.

Even limiting that average to Millennium Stadium scorelines results in a mean of 15.5 points, so the numbers look solid enough for this wager to get over the line.

Sonny Bill Williams to score the first try @ 14/1

With Liam Messam on the bench and Ma’a Nonu out injured, not one player in the All Blacks squad has ever touched down first against Wales, which means there’s an element of scratching around in the dark when putting up Williams.

However, we can be fairly sure the monster truck of a centre will be straining at the leash after failing to touch down in either of his Autumn Internationals appearances so far, from the start in the 24-21 victory over England and off the bench at Murrayfield.

Getting behind the 29-year-old to go over first in Cardiff therefore makes sense.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.

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Alex Fortune