#CameronMustGo support may continue but won’t have any effect
After 16 days of trending it appears the barrage suggesting #CameronMustGo is on the wane, with the hashtag dropping out of the list of the most used on Monday, but is it as simple as that?
Some have suggested that the hashtag has been censored, claiming the establishment are all too aware of the power of social media.
A ‘Twitterstorm’ was organised at 7pm on Monday evening to test such theory. Alas, there was no such return to that trending list, further fuelling talk of a conspiracy.
— David Crosweller (@DACAtHome) December 8, 2014
The Prime Minister has been subjected to a constant barrage of criticism on subjects ranging from the NHS, to slow economic growth and rising fuel bills, but according to Ladbrokes it’s highly unlikely any will have a meaningful impact on David Cameron’s spell at number 10 until at least the General Election.
It is 10/1 (from 7/1) that the Conservative leader is replaced before Britain goes to the polls next May, with a price of 1/50 on offer for Cameron to lead the Tories into battle again.
However, the bookmaker has opened up a ‘When will Cameron go?’ market, with 2015 the 5/6 favourite.
Ladbrokes Political trader Matthew Shaddick explains why:
“If Labour get the most seats at the general election (the betting markets say that’s about a 50% chance) Cameron will probably be leaving Downing Street.
“A very close result might leave him in place even if the Conservatives weren’t the biggest party, but such a result might also precipitate another general election quite quickly, when his position would be back in doubt.”
But get through next year and it could be 2017 before he packs his bags according to our man on the trading floor:
“2017 could be another trigger point if we get an EU referendum that year and PM Cameron is campaigning for IN but the result goes the other way”.
It hasn’t just been the PM that has felt the wrath of the masses on Twitter recently, with George Osborne coming under fire following his Autumn Statement, which some accused him of using to give tax breaks to Tory supporters, including a number of large oil companies.
Labour shadow cabinet office minister Jon Ashworth questioned “why the Tories’ big-money backers have been benefiting from policy changes? We know the Tories’ election campaign depends on funding from a privileged few. Now we see many have a direct line to the treasury.”
With focus on how the chancellor deals with criticism, Ladbrokes make it 25/1 that Osborne is replaced in his role before the next election.
But with both likely to stay for the foreseeable future at least, all eyes will be firmly on next May’s big vote.
– David Cameron to be replaced as Conservative leader before the General Election – 10/1
– George Osborne to be replaced as Chancellor before the General Election – 25/1
– Both David Cameron and George Osborne to be replaced before the General Election – 100/1
2015 – 5/6
2016 – 12/1
2017 – 7/1
2018 – 12/1
2019 – 20/1
2020 – 5/1
2021 or later – 6/1
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.
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