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EU Referendum: Turnout key factor in determinining Brexit outcome

| 05.04.2016

The EU Referendum betting market has been amazingly stable over the last few weeks, with the Ladbrokes Betting Barometer showing a pretty steady 33 per cent chance for a Brexit vote.

One key factor in the outcome will be turnout. Will young voters (mostly pro-Remain) bother going to the polls?

Will the extra enthusiasm of the Leave side see their supporters come out in droves to swing the result?

We’ve placed the Turnout betting line at 61.5%, which you can back Over or Under at 5/6.

For comparison, here are a few turnout figures from some other elections:

2015 UK General Election 66.1%
2014 Scottish Independence Referendum 84.6%
1974 EU Referendum 64.5%

We’ve also got a Turnout Bands market which gives you a few other options:


If you really think it could go as high as the Scottish Indyref, we’re offering 50/1 it beats the incredible 84.6% recorded.

Lastly, if you fancy predicting the turnout AND the result, we’ve got some odds for that too. The most popular option so far has been for Remain to win on the low turnout option.

But as you’ll see below there are plenty more options to choose from:


Check out our EU Referendum Betting Barometer and click here for the latest Politics odds.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.



Matthew Shaddick

Matthew Shaddick has been Head of Poliical Betting at Ladbrokes since 2008. He's a writer and odds-maker with particular expertise in UK and US elections.
Also known to dabble in music, literary and other out of the way betting markets. Sometimes issues tips on horse racing and football, which are best ignored.