Brighton v Sheff Weds: Hosts’ odd-goal obsession to cost them
Sheffield Wednesday’s surprise 2-0 win over Brighton in the first leg of the Championship play-off semi-final gives the south-coast club a mountain to climb at home on Monday night.
The Owls retained their 100 percent record in play-off appearances thanks to goals from Ross Wallace and Kieran Lee at Hillsborough and now have the upper hand in the race to reach Wembley.
Although Brighton were superb in front of their own fans during the Championship season, they were the masters of winning by one goal at the Falmer Stadium.
11 of Chris Hughton’s 15 victories on the south coast during the regular season came by the odd goal, which would not be enough against Wednesday to advance to the London showpiece.
A win by three goals or more would secure Brighton a spot in the play-off final, something that they only managed five times in total across the 46-game league campaign.
With no away-goal rule in the play-offs, a two-goal Brighton victory would ensure extra time is played, but Brighton only managed one of those this term.
Taking all of that into consideration a bet on Sheffield Wednesday to qualify looks the most likely one to make, but at odds of 1/7 that’s not going to pay off too many mortgages.
Instead, 3/1 on Brighton to win by one goal looks far more appealing considering the stats, with 13/2 available on a two-goal triumph and 16/1 on offer for a three-strike winning margin for the hosts.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.