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30-odd runner breakdown in Melbourne Cup King of Stats

| 28.10.2016

Australia’s Melbourne Cup may be known as ‘the race that stops a nation’ in that part of the world, but it won’t prevent the King of Stats casting a regal eye over the whopping field at Flemington Racecourse.

Here’s the lowdown ahead of Tuesday’s renewal:

All of the last 11 winners had run in the previous 28 days

A stat that really takes a scythe to this 30-plus runner field, making it more manageable, but leaving plenty of fancied horses in the dust.

Willie Mullins’ Wicklow Brave, Aidan O’Brien’s Bondi Beach and Robert Hickmott’s Almandin are among eight to fall at the first, along with Big Orange, Curren Mirotic, Heartbreak City, Beautiful Romance and Secret Number.

10 of the last 11 winners had previously triumphed over 1m4f

With 2m of turf to cover, some signs of stamina tend to be needed ahead of the big day.

melbourne-cup-big-orange (1)

None of Scottish, Tally, Grey Lion, Pentathlon, Rose of Virginia, Oceanographer, De Little Engine, The Bandit or Tom Melbourne have shown the required form, leaving 13 horses to sift through.

Nine of the last 11 winners were either four or five years old

Another eight fall by the wayside here, with plenty of fancied horses hoping to emulate then-six-year-old Prince of Penzance’s triumph 12 months ago.

That was an anomaly according to the stats though, so out go Our Ivanhowe, Whoshotthebarman, Grand Marshall, Almoonqith, Real Love, Sir John Hawkwood, Excess Knowledge and Qewy.

Eight of the last 11 winners had previously won a race of 15 or more runners

Despite racking up 10 wins in 27 career runs under rules, 4/1 favourite Hartnell is yet to score in a big field, which could be crucial considering the challenges he’ll face Down Under.

Exospheric and Gallante bow out alongside the jolly, leaving 6/1 second-favourite Jameka and 66/1 outsider Assign in the mix.

At those prices, you can afford to back both.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.



Iain Houten

Iain has been contributing pieces to various websites on an array of subjects, including sports, politics and art, for over four years. Despite blue being his favourite colour, the teams he supports all wear red.