Witney contest set to be biggest betting by-election ever

The Witney by-election on Thursday looks set to become the biggest ever such contest in political betting history, following a flurry of activity. 

We initially rated it as a non-event, chalking up the Tories at 1/500 to take the seat. But a rush of money on a shock Liberal Democrat win and fevered speculation on Labour’s performance has seen it overtake Eastleigh 2013 in betting turnover.

The Lib Dems have been backed in from 50/1 to 10/1, with over two-thirds of all bets placed on a shock gain. However, one bet of £20,000 on the Conservatives has helped ensure that they remain the firm 1/25 favourites.

Meanwhile, it’s only 6/1 that Labour lose their deposit and 1,000/1 for a dead-heat.

Matthew Shaddick of Ladbrokes said: “Despite looking like one of the safest Tory seats in the country, an army of Liberal Democrat fans believe this could be very close. If numbers of bets are any guide to the result, Theresa May could be in for a very unwelcome surprise.”

​Latest Ladbrokes betting:

Conservatives – 1/25

Liberal Democrats -10/1

Labour – 100/1

UKIP – 100/1

Green – 100/1

NHA – 200/1

English Democrats – 500/1

Daniel Skidmore – 500/1

Nicholas Ward – 500/1

Adam Knight – 500/1

Loonies – 1000/1

Eccentric Party GB – 1000/1

Bus Pass Elvis – 1000/1

One Love – 1000/1

Labour Vote Share

Under 5% – 6/1

5-10% – 2/1

10-15% – 7/4

15-20% – 5/1

20-25% – 10/1

Over 25% – 20/1

Click here for the latest Politics odds and keep checking back for the latest news and insight from our political betting team.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing