Scotland odds-on to hold second Independence Referendum by 2020
Published:
Scotland is now just 4/7 to hold a second Independence Referendum by the end of 2020, following Nicola Sturgeon’s announcement today.
The Scottish First Minister confirmed that she will ask Scottish parliament for permission to hold a second referendum.
Scotland first went to the polls in 2014, with 55.3 per cent voting to stay within the United Kingdom, and 44.7 per cent voting for independence.
But everything took on a new twist last summer, when the UK voted to leave the European Union, while Scotland voted to remain by 62 per cent to 38 per cent.
And ever since the historic result on June 23, it’s been widely reported that Sturgeon would push ahead for a second Scottish referendum.
Our traders now make it the shortest price yet at 4/7 that a second vote will be held by 2020, with Sturgeon suggesting she would like to hold the referendum between the autumn of 2018 and spring of 2019.
This time last year we offered 5/1 for another ballot before 2020, before the Brexit result slashed those odds into 5/6.
It’s 2/1 that Scotland votes to leave the UK before the end of 2020, with 9/4 saying the referendum produces a second Remain decision.
Our odds boffins make 2018 the most likely year for the vote, with 6/4 on offer.
And we haven’t ruled out a quick-fire referendum this year either, with 25/1 for a 2017 vote.
Of course, a second referendum may not go ahead any time soon, with 6/4 saying we don’t see Scotland cast another vote before the end of 2020.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing
