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Could the Hurricane change the Presidential Election Odds?

| 31.10.2012

With less than a week before the Presidential election, a large percentage of the US population are experiencing a massive weather event. Could the storm change the course of political history?

Probably not. It certainly hasn’t changed the odds, with Obama remaining a solid 1/3 favourite and Romney at 11/5. However, chances are that if this helps anyone, it’s the President. Time is running out for Romney and, whilst the race remains close, Obama does seem to hold the edge in enough of the swing states. The President remains a narrow favourite in Ohio, Colorado & Virginia. If the media spend the next few days talking about the weather and not the election, that gives Romney less opportunity to change the race. It’s also possible that the sight of Obama being calm, decisive and well, Presidential, helps him out a little at this late stage. Not much Mitt Romney can do but keep out of the way.

There are a couple of people who might see their career prospects advanced. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie seems to be coming out of this well and some political punters have decided to back him to be elected President in 2016. He’s now 16/1 from 33/1. Likewise New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg might see his national standing enhanced. Could he run as an Independent in 2016 and win the White House? He certainly has the money to launch a bid and his price has been snipped from 50/1 to 40/1.

Check out the @ladpolitics Twitter feed for all of the latest betting developments as the big day approaches.

Please Note: All odds and markets are correct at the date and time of publishing.



Matthew Shaddick

Matthew Shaddick has been Head of Poliical Betting at Ladbrokes since 2008. He's a writer and odds-maker with particular expertise in UK and US elections.
Also known to dabble in music, literary and other out of the way betting markets. Sometimes issues tips on horse racing and football, which are best ignored.