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Brazil vs Chile – long thin country expects routine thrashing

| 28.06.2010

Brazil are favourites, and Chile are a mere snack for them to enjoy on their way to the later rounds. At least, that’s what the script says. Will the Chileans obediently lie down, or will the newspapers get to use their “red hot” headlines yet again? The match kicks off at 7.30 pm in Johannesburg on Monday.

Brazil are heavily fancied at 4/9 to win against Chile without too much trouble. And with good reason. Their last six matches against the Chileans have ended 4-2, 3-0, 6-1, 3-0, 4-0 and 5-0.

In none of those were Brazil on the losing end.

You can get over 2.5 goals at 6.5, over 3.5 goals at 3/1, and if you really think Chile are in for a bad night, over 4.5 goals at 7/1. In the last five World Cups, only three teams have scored four goals at the Round of 16 stage (none have scored more), although one of those games was Brazil 4, Chile 1 in 1998.

Only five of those last 40 Round of 16 ties have seen five goals or more.

Chile will be without Marco Estrada, sent off in their last game against Spain, and Waldo Ponce and Gary Medel, both suspended for two yellows. To make things worse, Brazil have Kaka back after suspension, and Luis Fabiano in the running to win the Golden Shoe. He’s currently third favourite at 4/1.

Do Chile have any straws to clutch at? Well, they managed to score against Spain with only ten men and prevent the Spanish from extending their lead, they have a highly experienced international coach in the Argentine Marcelo “Madman” Bielsa, and they have an array of skilful young players – Alexis Sanchez of Udinese particularly caught the eye against Spain.

Several Brazil players head the list of players to score first, however, and Brazil haven’t gone out at this stage since 1990, when a Claudio Caniggia goal saw Argentina beat them. Chile, as they are doubtless aware, are not Argentina.

Do Chile have a hope in hell? Brazil have to lose sometime, and if you think that time is now, you can get them at 13/2 to win, and 16/5 the draw.

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Author

Ed Needham