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History suggests a spot for Brazil or Germany in the final

| 30.06.2010

Of the eight teams left in the tournament, five have already made it to a World Cup final.

Both Brazil and Germany have enjoyed a whopping seven World Cup finals each, with at least one of these nations featuring in thirteen of the eighteen previous World Cup climaxes.

Most startlingly, the final has featured either Brazil or Germany in six of the last seven tournaments – the one exception being the last World Cup, when Italy and France (no longer here) punched it out for the top prize.

And yet the pair have only met once – in 2002. The odds for a repeat of that one are 7/1.

Of the rest, Argentina have managed four finals (1930, 1978, 1986, 1990), Holland two (1974, 1978), and Uruguay two (1930, 1950).

Of the eighteen previous World Cup finals, only twice has it been an all South American affair (Uruguay vs Argentina 1930; Uruguay vs Brazil 1950). Hence, whilst Argentina vs Brazil is the favourite finalists combination at 7/2, history would obviously beg to differ.

The most likely pairing would be one South American team facing one from Europe – this has happened on nine occasions, whilst two European teams have come face-to-face on six.

With the exception of 2006, you would need to go all the way back to 1982 (Italy vs Germany) to find the last time that the final didn’t feature both a South American country and a European one.

Of other important note is that fact that only twice in World Cup history has a previous final repeated itself. Argentina vs Germany (1986, 1990), and Brazil vs Italy (1970, 1994).

Hence, history dictates that repeats of the 1930 final between Argentina and Uruguay (now at odds of 10/1), the 1974 final between Germany vs Holland (11/1),  the 1978 final between Argentina and Holland (8/1), and the 2002 final between Germany and Brazil (7/1) are unlikely.

All the facts would suggest a place for Brazil in the final, with room for one other team from Europe. If this can’t be Germany, that leaves just one alternative – Spain. The odds on a Spain vs Brazil final are 5/1.

Or, the outside pairing of Germany and Uruguay, who come with rather tempting odds of 14/1.

Can anyone stop Brazil or Germany making it to the final? See the full World Cup Finalists market.



Ed Needham