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Interesting trend points to a South American winner

| 30.06.2010

Whilst there is a trend for countries winning in their own continent – South American World Cups are only ever won by South American teams, European ones by Europeans (with the one exception of Brazil in Sweden, 1958) – Ghana look more likely to follow Japan, USA and Mexico as teams that couldn’t win on their own continent.

Their odds of pulling off that particular miracle are 33/1.

Which leaves the South American teams slugging it out with the European ones on fresh continental soil.

A rather worrying fact for the European bunch is that none of them have ever won outside Europe. The odds of them turning the tables on that trend are 11/10.

The aforementioned tournaments in Mexico, USA, and Japan and South Korea were all won by South American teams – Brazil in Mexico (1970), USA (1994), and Japan and South Korea (2002), then Argentina at Mexico 86.

Hence, even though the victories are perfectly split – with nine World Cup wins for South America, and nine for Europe – South America are the favourites to claim World Cup victory number 10, with odds of 8/13.

Interestingly, there is also a trend for alternate victories for South American and then European teams stretching all the way back to 1962, when Brazil won.

They were followed in 1966 by England, then Brazil won again in 1970, then West Germany in 1974, Argentina in 1978, Italy in 1982, Argentina in 1986, West Germany in 1990, Brazil in 1994, France in 1998, Brazil in 2002, Italy in 2006.

For this trend to continue, a South American team has to win this year’s World Cup.

Can Europe defy history and buck this trend? Teams from the continet make up three of the five favourites, with Holland priced at 7/1 to win the World Cup. See the full Continental Betting market.



Ed Needham