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Last chance to get some value out of winners market

| 30.06.2010

The top of the World Cup winners market has looked like a fairground carousel since the tournament began, with Argentina, Spain and Brazil all swapping the position of favourite, but with only eight teams left the value in betting on a potential champ is quickly diminishing.

Argentina were 3/1 favourites after their win against Mexico, but that has now moved out to 7/2 following Brazil’s (9/4) and Spain’s progressions (3/1).

The fact that Diego Maradona’s side, who have won all their games so far, are behind Spain, who lost to Switzerland and look short of top form, can largely be credited to their next opponents being Germany rather than Paraguay.

The same can be said of Joachim Low’s team, who, at 6/1 to win the tournament, seem undervalued at the moment. They blasted England and Australia and are the only team in the quarters to have beaten another last-eight team – Ghana. Their loss against Serbia came courtesy of a harsh sending off and a missed penalty.

On form this is the strongest of the quarter-finals with the tournament’s top two scorers going head to head – Argentina have scored 10 goals, while Germany have bagged nine.

Either victor will provide the strongest of examinations for Spain in the semis should Vicente Del Bosque’s side, who have only scored five but conceded twice, get past Paraguay.

Whoever wins, their price will drastically shorten, so backing one of them each way (to make the final, at 1/3 of their winners price) right now seems sound.

Holland are another team with value in them. If you fancy the Oranjes to upset Brazil then an each way bet on them (at 7/1 to win the World Cup) should be placed. They would face either Uruguay or Ghana in the semis and be easy favourites against either.

For a more speculative but money-spinning bet go for Paraguay, at 40/1. They’ve been involved in a few dour games but have the defensive solidity to frustrate Spain and nudge past them, potentially after extra-time or penalties – they’ve already shown their shoot-out nerve against Japan.

Ominously, Gerardo Martino’s side beat Argentina and Brazil in qualification – their potential semi-final and final opponents – and could be worth backing each way, equating to just over 13/1 to make the final.

Could Ghana or Uruguay make an unlikely surge to the final? Uruguay are unbeaten and could certainly trouble potential semi-final opponents Holland. They are 16/1 to win the World Cup. See the full Tournament Winners market.



John Klee