16:00 Cheltenham – Zemsky to upset Foxhunter favourites
Baby Run may be largely expected to successfully defend his crown in the Christie’s Foxhunter Chase, but given the high percentage of big-priced winners of the race in recent years, it may be worth the risk in siding with Zemsky.
Six of the last ten winners have gone off at a starting price of 14/1 or greater, meaning there is good reason to have a closer inspection at those further down the market.
Zemsky is one of the outsiders to stand out at 33/1 in the Cheltenham betting based on the fact that he has been performing well in Ireland for much of the year for trainer Ian Ferguson.
Meanwhile, this form was transported across the water to Musselburgh on his latest start when comfortably securing victory in a hunter chase.
Alongside being in the right cluster of the Cheltenham betting to secure Foxhunter victory, Zemsky’s form and age also put him firmly in contention.
Only two of the last 20 winners have been older than ten and this statistic not only rules out 10/3 favourite Baby Run, but also other fancies including Gone To Lunch.
Furthermore, 20 of the last 25 winners have secured victory on their last start before Cheltenham.
On The Fringe has to be given a serious chance based on the strength of his current form, but it is a big ask for a six-year-old to win the Foxhunters.
He is priced at 7/2.
Paul Nicholls has not trained a Foxhunters winner since 2005, but has a good chance of ending this streak with Just Amazing, who is sure to be up with the pace throughout and is priced at 10/1.
Another horse worth considering at longer odds is Turthen at 33/1, who finished eighth in the race behind Baby Run 12 months ago.
Horses that finished unplaced in the Foxhunters Chase tend to give a much-improved performance when returning the following year.
A £20 stake on Zemsky winning the Foxhunter Chase would return £660. New customers can sign up here to take advantage of free bets totalling up to £60.