14:30 York: Angels Will Fall as Fire Lily blazes the trail in Lowther
In the last 10 runnings of the Lowther Stakes the winner has come from the first four in the betting so that is where we’re concentrating our efforts.
Four times the favourite has prospered in the last 10 years and Gamilati and Angels Will Fall are currently challenging for favouritism – both are priced at 7/2.
The bad news for Gamilati fans is that only two winners of the Cherry Hinton Stakes at Newmarket have come here and both have been beaten, finishing third and fifth.
Angels Will Fall was the winner of the Princess Margaret Juddmonte Stakes at Ascot and the winner of that race has a very strong record when coming here – the seven runners that have come here have finished, 8, 1, 1, 5, 2, 6, 1.
However the fate of the favourite would be a worry to punters and while Angels Will Fall looks a very strong candidate, the preference is for David Wachman’s Fire Lily (6/1).
The filly made her first foray into a six furlong race at the Curragh last time out and relished the step-up on slowing ground, posting a very respectable time of 1m 15.81s.
Compare this with Angels Will Fall’s time of 1m 16.80s on good to soft ground at Ascot and you have to believe Fire Lily can run a big race.
She has ground to make up on Shumoos (5/1) on the basis of the Queen Mary Stakes form at Royal Ascot, but Shumoos has been poor since beating Frederick Engels on her debut win and Fire Lily can reverse the Royal Ascot form.
Best Terms is currently trading at 7/1 and while she is out of the top four in the betting, she looks a very good bet to finish in the first three on the basis of her Queen Mary Stakes win, although she hasn’t been seen on a racecourse for two months.