Irish Grand National between Start Me Up and Some Target
The Irish Grand National looks a hard one to call this year and given that it has been a race for the outsiders of late, it may pay to side with either Some Target or Start Me Up.
Cross Appeal is one of two to head the Irish Grand National odds at 9/1 and it is hard to criticise his season, which includes a victory in the Irish Paddy Power over many of the rivals that re-oppose at Fairyhouse.
However, he has been raised 9lb in the official ratings for the victory and favourites have placed just three times in the last ten years in the Irish Grand National.
Groody Hill is the other at 9/1 and this looks to be down to the jockey booking of Tony McCoy rather than any outstanding form and he looks another to side against.
Therefore, looking further down the betting, Start Me Up looks overpriced at 18/1, especially if getting over is run at the Cheltenham Festival alright when he was fifth behind Sunnyhillboy in the Kim Muir.
Earlier in the season Start Me Up finished a nose adrift of Four Commandments, who is 10/1 to win the Irish Grand National, but is 3lb well in on this occasion from that run.
Start Me Up also fits the leading age and weight trends, which have been accurate in recent years.
Eight-year-olds have won four of the last ten instalments, all of the last eight winners have carried 10st8lb or less to victory and nine of the last ten have held a rating between 125 and 136.
Start Me Up is eight, carries 10st6lb and has an official rating of 133.
Some Target is another who meets all three trends and can be backed at 20/1 to win the Irish Grand National.
He finished fourth in a hot Grand National Trial last time behind Giles Cross in February and the opposition at Fairyhouse should be of a fairly lesser standard.
The one big problem with the horse is that he can take a while to pick up and being an infrequent winner with one triumph in his last 13 starts, the Willie Mullins runner may be better backed each way.