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Trend fans should back Chicago Grey to win the Grand National

| 10.04.2012

There are certain statistics that are common among numerous recent Grand National winners and paying closer attention to some of these this year suggests that it will be Chicago Grey that will triumph at Aintree next month.

Chicago Grey is currently 20/1 in the Grand National odds and this is a good thing as eight of the last ten winners were either this price or shorter.

Punters may be put off Chicago Grey because he is a hold-up horse and this arguably presents a bigger risk because of the greater likelihood that he will be brought down by a faller or generally impeded by those making jumping mistakes ahead.

However, Amberleigh House proved in 2004 that a horse can come from off the pace to win the Grand National and the possible booking of Paul Carberry, who thrives on hold-up horses, would be a big boost towards his chances.

From a trends perspective, Chicago Grey is the only possible runner that fits a further seven of the most common statistics and this does not include price.

Eight of the last ten winners have been aged either nine or ten, while 14 of the 16 placed horses across the last four years have been allocated a weight of 10st11lb or higher.

This substantially narrows down the field, while only five possible remain once horses to have triumphed on more than one chase start this season already have been removed, alongside those to fail to finish in the first five on their last completed start.

But, with Weird Al, Planet Of Sound, Junior and West End Rocker all trained in England, Chicago Grey is the sole Irish representative from this five.

Ireland have been responsible for four of the last ten Grand National winners, despite sending under a quarter of the total runners to Aintree in this period.

Other factors that sit well for Chicago Grey are that his official rating is superior to 143 and he has winning form in races in excess of 3m.



Craig Kemp

Craig has written for Ladbrokes since the 2010 World Cup, having previously gained a Media & Sports Journalism degree and contributed to publications including the Racing Post. His main areas of interest are horse racing and UFC, but he is also an avid X Factor gambler and likes nothing more than indulging in a spot of Hip Hop Karaoke.