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Boycott Ella and turn to James Arthur to win X Factor

| 30.10.2012

Ella Henderson has already drifted from odds-on to 1/1 to win the X Factor and there is certainly the argument that she is becoming increasingly boring.

The X Factor is already proving to be more unpredictable this year with the voting lines open from the start of the show, potentially meaning that fanbases are playing far more of an important role than level of performance.

This could well be the reason as to why eight different acts have already been in the bottom two and none more than once, as contestants in the middle of the fanbase pecking order fight to win over the public.

Furthermore, this may go some way to explaining why Rylan Clark and Chris Maloney are both still in the show.

Ella has been the heavy favourite since bootcamp, but she has hardly improved across the four live shows and if anything the comments towards her have been slowly getting more negative.

This follows a similar pattern to the likes of Laura White, Danyl Johnson and Janet Devlin in previous X Factor years and these contestants failed to even reach the final, despite their early favouritism.

Ella is unlikely to drop off to this degree, but she does not fit the pattern of previous winners.

Taking into account contestants to have previously won, they usually start off win a gentle performance, get the judges raving around week three/four and seal their charge with another top-drawer display around week eight/nine.

Alexandra Burke, Joe McElderry and most recently Little Mix all had a moment a few weeks into the competition to secure their spot as challengers and winners tend to be consistent improvers rather than those who peak too early.

James Arthur looks the best follower of this trend this year, with his performance of ‘Sexy And I Know It’ last week helping to get his bandwagon rolling.

He is now starting to shorten in the X Factor betting to 7/2 and this may still prove a decent price as he goes from strength to strength, while Ella struggles to draw the same compliments as in the early weeks.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.



Craig Kemp

Craig has written for Ladbrokes since the 2010 World Cup, having previously gained a Media & Sports Journalism degree and contributed to publications including the Racing Post. His main areas of interest are horse racing and UFC, but he is also an avid X Factor gambler and likes nothing more than indulging in a spot of Hip Hop Karaoke.