Djokovic beating Murray in aces is best bet for Australian Open final
Despite Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray not currently occupying the top two places in the ATP world rankings, few would argue that these are not the best two players in men’s tennis right now.
This makes picking a winner difficult, with Djokovic quite a clear favourite at 8/15, while Murray is 6/4 to claim a second consecutive Grand Slam following his US Open win last year.
There are four fairly strong reasons why Djokovic is a worthy favourite, with the fact that he is the world number one and bidding for a third straight Australian Open crown a logical two.
He also leads their head-to-head rivalry and perhaps most important in this instance, is far more rested heading into the final.
Djokovic played his semi final with David Ferrer a day before Murray and hardly came out of third gear to win in straight sets.
Meanwhile, Murray was made to work much harder by Roger Federer and must be the more tired of the two finalists.
However, it is away from the match betting where the better opportunities for punters lie.
Since Djokovic beat Murray 3-0 in the 2011 Australian Open final, the pair have completed seven matches, of which only two have been won in straight sets.
This suggests another titanic tussle and the 2/5 that over 37.5 games are played out in the final looks worth taking.
This game line will almost certainly be cleared if this goes to at least four sets.
What is also noted is that Djokovic can be a slow starter, as he has lost the first set in all of his last four showdowns with Murray, while he was beaten 6-1 in the opening set by Stanislas Wawrinka earlier in the tournament.
Murray is 6/5 to take the first set here, which seems more than a fair price.
But the best bet may sit in the aces market.
Murray sent down 21 aces against Federer and trumps Djokovic 71 to 46 in the aces department across the whole Australian Open this year.
It is 2/5 that the Brit serves the most aces in the final, but preference is for Djokovic at 7/4, given that he out-aced Murray in Melbourne last year and did so again in their five-setter in the US Open final.
All odds and markets accurate as of publication’s time and date