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Barcelona v AC Milan: Too soon to write off hosts’ qualification hopes

| 12.03.2013

Though AC Milan carry a clear advantage into this round of 16 second-leg tie, Barcelona’s chances of qualifying by any means should not be discounted at 5/4.

The Catalans must overcome a 2-0 aggregate deficit, and are 3/10 to simply win this clash in 90 minutes.

But considering they must victor by at least two goals to advance in normal time, the hosts may be worth investment in handicap markets on the game.

It is 33/20 that Barca overcome a theoretical two-goal disadvantage, and a bet on that outcome would have paid dividends in six of their 13 home La Liga outings so far this season.

Although only one European game would have brought returns on that market this term, Barca have managed to keep three clean sheets in the Champions League, boding well with regards to such a bet.

And those fancying another Spanish clean sheet can have a generous 5/4 that it is achieved, whilst the 7/5 that the Catalans win without conceding also appeals.

It should be noted that Barca’s first-leg loss to Milan was their first in the past eight encounters of the pair, so confidence should remain high in the pre-tournament favourites.

Of those games, just less than half reaped at least four goals, so attention regarding Barcelona in total result markets here is justified.

13/10 looks a fair price that the hosts win a game featuring in excess of 3.5 strikes, as they already have done in eight home matches this season.
Those fancying the Italians to progress meanwhile, can have 5/1 about them achieving the stalemate they need, whilst it is 15/2 they advance by completing a double over Barca.

As they haven’t won at the Nou Camp for 13 years though, AC could be best avoided in match betting markets.

They are favoured at 3/5 to simply qualify, and if that price is to be justified, they will have to once again stifle Lionel Messi.

While he was almost ineffectual in the first leg at the San Siro, Messi has five Champions League goals so far this season, and is 2/1 to open the scoring here.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.



John Klee