England to avoid clean sheets with both Montenegro and Poland
“We’re gonna score one more than you” is one of the standout lines of the Fat Les song Vindaloo, widely sung by England supporters now after being released ahead of the 1998 World Cup.
And there are two reasons why England will have to follow the message of these lyrics closely if they want to confirm their spot at the World Cup in Brazil in 2014.
Victories in their final two qualifiers at home to Montenegro and Poland would secure their place as winners of Group H and it is 10/11 that Roy Hodgson’s team finish on 22 points from their 10 games.
However, the chief reason to follow the lyrics is because England may run into difficulty keeping clean sheets against either opponent.
Defensively, England have been solid of late, with clean sheets in their last two qualifiers with Moldova and Ukraine.
However, not since Steve McClaren’s tenure as boss have England shut out the opposition in three consecutive fixtures, when doing so in successive Euro 2008 qualifiers.
This doesn’t suggest that they will keep Montenegro at bay, while Poland have made a habit of scoring in their recent fixtures.
It is seven games since Poland last drew a blank and this failure to score against the Republic of Ireland was the only time this has happened in 14 fixtures.
In terms of how many goals England will concede across the two fixtures, the shortest price is the 13/8 that they let in one, with 11/5 offered that they keep another pair of clean sheets.
But, preference is for the 3/1 that they concede twice, with 8/1 potentially on the large side that England are breached three times.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.
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