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King of Stats: Bobs Worth ready to claim consecutive Gold Cups

| 14.03.2014

It’s the most prestigious National Hunt race of all, won by such illustrious names as Arkle, Best Mate, Kauto Star and Denman and for the 14 horses declared for the 2014 rendition it’s a chance to have their names aligned with some of the greats.

Every race at Cheltenham comes with stacks of trends that help narrow down the punter’s selections and the Gold Cup is no different. That hasn’t escaped our regal purveyor of stats and he’s run the rule over the best of them to help you make your pick:

. Age is definitely a factor for would-be Gold Cup winners as only one animal aged 10 or over has taken the gold in the last 16 years. Conversely only one horse under the age have seven has triumphed in that same time frame. Sadly Knockara Beau, Teaforthree and On His Own are all rendered too old to feature.

. Recent form is an obvious pointer, with 12 of the last 13 Gold Cup winners finishing in the first two last time out. That rules out First Lieutenant, Lord Windermere, Lyreen Legend, Katenko and Houblon Des Obeaux.

. Along with recent form, a good record at the Festival is also needed to win this race. Having never finished in the first two here before, Paul Nicholls’ Silviniaco Conti can’t be considered, as 10 of the last 13 Gold Cup winners had managed to do so.

. By winning the Gold Cup last season, Bobs Worth became the 13th straight victor to come from the first three in the betting at the off. Good news for the reigning champ and Last Instalment.

. In terms of warm ups it’s appearances in the King George at Kempton (nine winners since 2000) and Leopardstown’s Lexus Chase (four winners in last eight) that matter. That rules out Last Instalment’s chances, leaving our pick to go it alone.

Our Pick: Bobs Worth

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.

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Matt Wiggins

No idyllic sound comes close to leather on willow for Matt, whose previous experience includes stints with Spin Magazine and Surrey County Cricket Club. It's not just cricket that interests him though, with football, golf, tennis and any American sport not played on ice all high on his list of favourites.