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Liverpool v Man City: Dominance of draws cannot be ignored

| 12.04.2014

It’s being billed as a winner-takes-all Premier League title match, but recent history denotes that the result to plump for between Liverpool and Manchester City could well be the draw and more precisely a 2-2 scoreline.

Chasing a tenth-straight league victory, leaders Liverpool are flying and for that reason they would have to be fancied against any top-flight visitors right now.

However, Manchester City are not just any old guests. City too are chasing the title and know that by completing a league double over Liverpool they would reduce the Reds’ lead over them to just a point, but crucially still with two games in hand.

The stakes couldn’t be higher and the closeness of the two sides is represented by Liverpool’s marginal favouritism for victory at 6/4, while City are 9/5 shots and the draw is 13/5 with Ladbrokes.

Liverpool have a 100 per cent record against the four top-seven sides to have visited Anfield so far, but with so much riding on this match it could easily go the way five of the last six competitive meetings between the clubs on Merseyside and end in parity.

Incredibly, three of the last five clashes and at Anfield and three of the last four at either club’s ground have all finished 2-2; a scoreline which can be backed at handsome odds of 11/1.

Given these sides are the Premier League’s top two scorers, both teams finding the net seems more inevitable than further flooding in Britain next winter at 9/20.

This goes a long way to explaining the relatively short price of 13/10 on over 3.5 total goals being scored, which seems a great covering bet.

Worth noting that Liverpool have led at half-time more than any other side in the league as well, so 12/1 on home/draw in half-time/full-time holds plenty of appeal also.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.

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Christian Crowther

Give Christian a sport with anything remotely spherical in it and he’ll happily while away the hours watching it on the box. However, he’d much prefer writing about, playing or betting on golf, football, cricket, tennis, snooker.... you get the picture.