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How to profit from Spain’s World Cup send off against Bolivia

| 29.05.2014

Defending champions and 13/2 World Cup fourth-favourites Spain set sail for Washington, D.C. after their home friendly against Bolivia, with El Salvador up next in Barack Obama’s backyard.

Coach Vicente del Bosque will field a somewhat-unfamiliar XI as he works towards whittling down a 30-man squad by seven, but we’ve managed to discern plenty of punting prescience from their recent form, with the trio of tips below garnered from the info:

Pedro to score the first goal @ 9/2

Most of La Roja’s attacking big-guns won’t be available for the clash with La Verde.

Diego Costa, Fernando Llorente, Alvaro Negredo and David Villa are all expected to miss the friendly fixture at Sevilla’s Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan Stadium, with Del Bosque relying on former Merseysiders Fernando Torres and Gerard Deulofeu, plus reported Liverpool target Pedro, for goals.

The ex-Reds striker cannot be backed with any confidence at 3/1 to break the deadlock, after notching just two Premier League openers in 16 Chelsea starts last term, while Barcelona’s 2013/14 Everton loanee will do well to fire first on his international debut at 9/2.

Bearing that in mind, the other Blaugrana winger on show in Andalusia – who scored the only goal in Spain’s last match at home to Italy – looks by far the best value in this market.

Spain to win with two or fewer goals scored in the match @ 20/21

Aside from going down 1-0 away to South Africa in November, the world champions’ form has been solid since the 3-0 Confederations Cup final loss to Brazil last summer, with six wins and a draw with Chile posted.

However, Spain have not been in the habit of tearing teams apart of late and even lowly Equatorial Guinea restricted Iker Casillas and co to a one-goal victory during that run of matches.

Four of their past six wins have featured two goals or less, while the remaining pair produced just one more strike apiece.

Draw HT/Spain win FT @ 16/5

In three of the visitors’ last four fixtures the sides on show have gone into the break honours even, with the sole exception against Paraguay seeing Bolivia down by the minimum at half-time.

Considering Del Bosque’s men have racked-up three goalless first-45s in their five fixtures since the start of October, including in their last two matches against Italy and Equatorial Guinea, over 3/1 on Spain to only spark into life when the finishing line’s in sight screams value.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.

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Alex Fortune