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UKIP’s Top 20 Target Seats

| 17.06.2014

Ladbrokes already have general election odds on over 400 individual constituencies. According to our odds, here are UKIP’s Top 20 most likely wins in 2015.

Seat Region Winner 2010   % Majority  UKIP Odds
Thanet South South East Conservative     16.6 6/4
Great Yarmouth East of England Conservative     9.9 3/1
Castle Point East of England Conservative     16.9 3/1
Folkestone and Hythe South East Conservative     19.2 3/1
Eastleigh South East Lib-Dem     7.2 10/3
Boston and Skegness East Midlands Conservative     28.8 7/2
Thurrock East of England Conservative     0.2 7/2
Louth and Horncastle East Midlands Conservative     27.5 4/1
Thanet North South East Conservative     31.2 4/1
Portsmouth South South East Lib-Dem     12.6 4/1
Rotherham Yorks & Humber Labour     27.9 4/1
Basingstoke South East Conservative     26.0 5/1
Great Grimsby Yorks & Humber Labour     2.2 5/1
Cambridgeshire North West East of England Conservative     28.6 6/1
Newcastle-under-Lyme West Midlands Labour     3.6 6/1
Dover South East Conservative     10.5 6/1
Camborne and Redruth South West Conservative     0.2 6/1
Christchurch South West Conservative     31.2 6/1
Spelthorne South East Conservative     21.2 7/1
Cleethorpes Yorks & Humber Conservative     9.6 7/1

Thanet South tops the list, mostly because we are expecting Farage to stand here; I think UKIP would go to about Evens in that seat if he does.

Most of the other seats are in areas where they’ve done very well in council and European elections or, in Eastleigh, put up a very good showing in a Westminster by-election. Based on the Eastleigh and Newark by-elections, it’s probably unlikely they can get much beyond the low to mid 30s as a percentage in any seat. So their best bets are probably going to be constituencies that they can turn into three or even four way marginals. The Greens managed to win their first seat, Brighton Pavilion, with just 31% of the vote.

Do I think there are any good bets here? Well, I have backed them to win in Eastleigh and Cleethorpes myself, but at bigger prices. Personally, I am of the opinion that the odds above generally over-estimate their chances, but there are plenty of punters out there who want to back them. I expect there might be a bit of value in taking on UKIP on in these seats.




Matthew Shaddick

Matthew Shaddick has been Head of Poliical Betting at Ladbrokes since 2008. He's a writer and odds-maker with particular expertise in UK and US elections.
Also known to dabble in music, literary and other out of the way betting markets. Sometimes issues tips on horse racing and football, which are best ignored.