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King of Stats: Where recent Falmouth Stakes trends point

| 11.07.2014

King of Stats is back with something verging on a vengeance for Newmarket’s July festival, with some super-smart fillies and mares in need of a right royal once-over ahead of the 1m Falmouth Stakes.

Only seven challengers are set to line up in the Suffolk track’s 2.40, but our highness has seen fit to deduce the whys and wherefores to aid punting profit nonetheless. Read on, subjects…   

Four of the last five Falmouth Stakes have been won by four-year-olds

This is where we say goodbye to Clive Brittain’s 4/1 shot Rizeena, who’s three, plus Kiyoshi at 14s.

Three-year-old’s have taken this race just four times in the last 11 renewals, having gone on an eight-year run between 1993-2000.

The Irish have a dreadful record in this race

Simply Perfect’s win in 2007 under Johnny Murtagh, who wore the colours of Michael Tabor and John Magnier for Ballydoyle, is the only such Irish-owned Falmouth triumph over the last 30 years.

That means we part company with Aidan O’Brien’s 33/1 rank outsider Peace Burg at this juncture.

The Kicker: Four of the last five winners have gone into the race having lost last time out

We’ve been left with 6/4 favourite Integral, 2/1 Sky Lantern, who won last season’s 1000 Guineas for Richard Hannon, Murtagh 12/1 poke Purr Along and Charlie Appleby’s Certify, 20/1 under last year’s victorious Falmouth jockey William Buick.

Seeing as this race has proved a graveyard for winning streaks, Michael Stoute’s favourite – who took the Duke of Cambridge last time out – has to go in the bin.

The Verdict

Our three non-Irish four-year-old’s who lost their last races are 2/1 Sky Lantern, 12/1 Purr Along and 20/1 Certify.

Each of them finished behind Integral at Royal Ascot, but Murtagh’s Purr Along got closest to the Stoute animal in third, so she gets the nod.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.

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Alex Fortune