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King of Stats: Is it worth opposing Kingman’s Sussex Stakes bid?

| 30.07.2014

Only four entrants look likely to go to post for this year’s Group 1 Sussex Stakes at Glorious Goodwood, with only two of those seemingly given any hope of success by the bookmakers.

Kingman and Toronado stand head and shoulders above the rest in the betting. And given this renewal’s recent trends it’s perhaps wise to focus solely on the market principals.

Here is the verdict from our very own King of Stats.

– Three-year-olds have enjoyed the edge over their older rivals in recent years. Six of the previous 10 Sussex Stakes winners (five of the last six) have been aged three-years-old with four-year-olds delivering just two victories in that period. First blood, Kingman.

– Richard Hannon has won three of the last 11 runnings, in 2003, 2010 and 2013 respectively. Meanwhile, opposing trainer John Gosden is yet to taste Sussex Stakes success. Will the Yorkshire saddler be denied once again by defending champion Toronado?

– Let’s quickly narrow the field down further and put a stop to any reckless punting. Each of the previous 10 winners have come from the first four in the market (War Command was still in the race at the time of writing). Don’t bother putting a ‘cheeky quid’ on Aidan O’Brien long-shot, Darwin.

– Favourites have a pretty decent recent record. Five of the last six winners have gone off as the favourite which on paper bodes well for Kingman (if you don’t take into account the fact that Toronado lowered Dawn Approach’s colours last year…).

– Previous top level success isn’t necessarily an indicator of an entrant’s Sussex Stakes chances. But it probably helps. Seven of the last 10 winners had all won a Group 1 before heading to Glorious Goodwood. That’s something to hold onto if you’re a follower of Outstrip.

– Nine of the previous 10 winners finished first or second at Royal Ascot that season. St. James’s Palace Stakes hero Kingman and Queen Anne Stakes victor Toronado can hardly be split. Unless…

– Frankel is the only dual-winner in Sussex Stakes history meaning it’ll be a huge task for Toronado to repeat the trick.

Henrythenavigator has tried to claim back-to-back renewals in the recent past but he could only manage a runner-up finish behind Canford Cliffs at the second time of asking in 2010.

The latter was then thwarted in his bid for a follow-up success by the greatest racehorse to ever grace the turf.

Our Verdict: Kingman

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.

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William Geldart

William contributed to a number of online football blogs before finally finding his pot of gold at the end of the rainbow alongside the rest of the Ladbrokes News team. Now indulging passions for football, horse racing, greyhounds, boxing and political betting. Supports Wycombe Wanderers and can be spotted at various lower league and non-league grounds across the country.