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King of Stats: Heavy Metal has answer to Betfred Mile puzzle

| 01.08.2014

The Betfred Mile has proved to be a fiendishly tough nut to crack in recent years and this year’s renewal looks no different.

But despite the tricky task in front of him our King of Stats hasn’t been deterred.

In-form trainer Mark Johnston has taken three of the last five runnings and that impressive record could be improved upon even further come the end of this contest.

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Find out who our resident number-cruncher has plumped for below…

– Where to start? Eight out of the last 10 winners have been drawn low with seven of those victors coming from stalls numbered 1-7. Antepost fancies Captain Cat and Belgian Bill fit into that bracket but are they simply too old to have a chance?

– Maybe. Horses aged three-years-old and four-years-old have won eight out of the previous 10 runnings with horses aged five-years-old and above posting a record of 2-11 from 99 entrants during that period. That rules out half of the prospective field on this occasion, including the already friendless Chosen Character and Askaud.

– Class is permanent. Five of the last six winners have enjoyed a rating of 99 or above with 28 out of the 32 places on offer in that period occupied by horse officially rated 94 or higher. Horsted Keynes (103) and Two for Two (103) are two lively chances.

– Eight out of the last 10 winners have come from the first three in betting. Yet only two favourites have been victorious in that sequence. Another conundrum to unpick, especially for fans of current fancy, Velox.

– Five of the last 10 winners have carried between 8-7 to 8-13. If you’re going on that trend you’re cutting out a fair few. Russian Realm makes the grade though and should go well with Ryan Moore in the saddle.

– Our fancy ticks a lot of the boxes mentioned. And some. In the last eight renewals the 18 penalised horses to race have won on three occasions and earned five places. The Mark Johnston-trained Heavy Metal carries an extra 3lb for his recent International Stakes victory. But don’t let that put you off.

Our pick: Heavy Metal 

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William Geldart

William contributed to a number of online football blogs before finally finding his pot of gold at the end of the rainbow alongside the rest of the Ladbrokes News team. Now indulging passions for football, horse racing, greyhounds, boxing and political betting. Supports Wycombe Wanderers and can be spotted at various lower league and non-league grounds across the country.