How to spot an Ebor winner three weeks out from York’s big day

With 76 contenders currently priced between 7/2-50/1 for York’s Ebor handicap at the end of August, it’s fair to say there’s plenty of value on offer up north if a winning candidate can be whittled down.

Thankfully for us equine enthusiasts, there are plentiful clues as to where your dough should go in Britain’s former capital.

First and foremost, the Ebor has been a favourites’ graveyard for some time now, with only Luca Cumani’s 2007 winner Purple Moon justifying market-leader status over the past 15 years.

Tiger Cliff’s 5/1 victory under Tom Queally in 2013 was the only single-digit odds triumph in the last six renewals.

Considering Mudawin took this at 100/1 the year before Cumani’s gelding, it’s impossible to discount any runner, but with each of the other 15 winners since 1998 coming in at 25/1 or under, limiting potential picks to below this mark seems sensible.

In fact, three of the last six first-past-the-post in the Ebor have returned at exactly 25/1, so choosing from the 18 currently available at said each-way price could be the key to this market.

Of this group, only Glorious Protector won last time out, which immediately discounts Ed Walker’s four-year-old as no horse has taken this having gone into the race off the back of victory since Purple Moon.

A bit of form is helpful though, as three of the last four winners finished no lower than fourth in their previous outing.

Dark Crusader, Dashing Star and Esteamer all come into the reckoning by that rationale, having placed second, fourth and second respectively in their prior engagements.

Of that trio, David Elsworth’s Dashing Star gets our nod for a trainer who won this with 20/1 shot Saint Alebe in 2013.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.

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