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Rugby Championship: Australia to be more lucky than good again

| 12.09.2014

The Rugby Championship continues at a clip when Argentina travel to Australia in gameweek four, while the mighty New Zealand host South Africa.

After a couple of near misses last week, plus one winning tip, we’ve gone back to the well to bring you the best bets for the next round of the tournament formerly known as the Tri Nations.

Argentina +12 points to beat Australia  @ 10/11

Congratulations to those who lumped on the 7/4 about Aussie superstar Israel Folau going over in his side’s 24-23 win over South Africa last time, while heartfelt commiserations go out to punters who backed the draw at 18/1, which was the only match bet we could whole-heartedly recommend.

The Wallabies are no great shakes and Australian Rugby Union – particularly domestically – has rarely been in worse shape, so clearing a 12-point handicap against Los Pumas looks a big ask.

Argentina were beaten 28-9 by New Zealand last time out, but Australia took a 51-20 pasting off their neighbours across the Tasman Sea a few weeks ago, so there should be little between these two.

Furthermore, the last two Australia v Argentina clashes Down Under have seen the sides separated by five points combined, which suggests a 12-point handicap is simply wrong.

New Zealand -9 points to beat South Africa @ 10/11

The stats strongly suggested that the world champions would not overcome a 27-point handicap at home to Argentina (they hadn’t done so in over a decade), but this is no ordinary All Blacks side – which is really saying something – so we should have known better than to take them on.

Conversely, South Africa have failed to put on a show so far in this campaign, having edged past Argentina by a combined score of just seven points, before being touched off last time out in Australia.

A good gambler learns from their mistakes, and with New Zealand besting the Springboks by at least 10 in each of their last five clashes when hosting, this handicap bet serves up the required humble pie.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.

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Alex Fortune