GOP White House odds shorten after mid-term wins.
— The Economist (@TheEconomist) November 5, 2014
The GOP outperformed expectations last night and we’ve shortened them up from 5/4 to 11/10 to take the White House in 2016.
The standard thinking is that Obama won quite handily in 2012, out-polling Romney by about 4%, and that demographically things are moving in the Democrats favour. (Essentially the proportion of white voters in the electorate is declining, and that is bad news for the Republicans). Furthermore, the Democrats clearly have an extremely experienced and well qualified potential candidate in Hillary Clinton and the GOP don’t have any clear front-runner as yet.
So, despite their mid-term successes, we still make the Republicans narrow outsiders. However, the next two years are not likely to be filled with achievements for Obama now that both houses of Congress are controlled by the opposition, and the cries for “change” are likely to intensify.
Clinton remains an extremely strong 11/8 favourite but we’ve cut the odds on both Jeb Bush and Scott Walker overnight.
I’ve had a couple of bets so far – Rick Perry and Mike Huckabee, both at very long odds. Ladbrokes’ worst results as things stand would be Bernie Sanders (250/1), Elizabeth Warren (20/1) or George Clooney (100/1).