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King of Stats: Hotpot ticks every International Hurdle box

| 12.12.2014

Nicky Henderson goes into the International Hurdle with highly-regarded Cheltenham expert Vaniteux, but the stats suggest Nigel Twiston-Davies’ The New One is a more-than-worthy 4/9 favourite to win this event for the second year running.

The key trends to take out of this race over the past decade are:

  • – Nine of the past ten winners have carried at least 11-4 in weight to victory
  • – Eight have been six-years-old or younger
  • – Seven have gone off as outright favourites
  • – Seven went into the race off the back of a win last time out

The first stat cuts out most of the field, including 5/2 second-favourite Vaniteux, who also falls foul of the form having failed to win either of his last two starts.

Bertimond, Billy Twyford, Mad Moose, Mighty Mambo and Olofi also make way here, as they are set to carry the same 11-0 as Henderson’s inmate, but with none of the quartet able to boast of a last-time-out success, they never stood a chance.

Venetia Williams’ Zamdy Man just about misses out on this metric, having gone down to The New One off level weights at Haydock last month, which scuppered a three-race winning streak.

There must be a reason why John Patrick Shanahan keeps entering King Of The Picts in these big races, but it’s yet to become entirely apparent as the Rock Of Gibraltar gelding has won just three times in 21 starts under rules, with his last coming nine outings ago.

That leaves The New One, who has won on all three starts since storming into third in the Cheltenham Champion Hurdle back in March, having been hampered earlier on by a faller, and will go off under the same 11-8 he was burdened with before cruising to a six-length victory over 2012 winner Zarkandar last year.

Twiston-Davies’ charge may seem a prohibitive price, but there’s no point arguing with the stats. They don’t say much back.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.

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Alex Fortune