The Five Seats that a Green Surge could hand to the Tories
Published:
Labour fears email from Tory MP endorsing Green candidate is evidence of plan to split left-wing voters https://t.co/ePu4U7waP1
— Telegraph News (@TelegraphNews) January 16, 2015
Whilst the Greens’ odds in places like Bristol West & Norwich South have shortened a little in recent days, the more significant betting moves have been in seats where a Green Surge have improved the odds of a Tory victory.
Below are five seats in which the Conservative odds have shortened as a result of an expected improvement in the Green vote. These aren’t seats that anyone really expects the Greens to win; anyone who disagrees can take advantage of the odds on a Green gain in each constituency, which I have helpfully included.
I’ve also shown the current forecast vote share for each seat as projected by the excellent electionforecast site.
| Cons | Lab | Greens | Green Odds | |
| Brighton Kemptown | 37% | 35% | 10% | 25/1 |
| Hove | 36% | 34% | 14% | 25/1 |
| Stroud | 35% | 37% | 12% | 25/1 |
| Norwich North | 34% | 31% | 11% | 50/1 |
| Bristol NW | 33% | 32% | 7% | 66/1 |
So, in four of these seats, the projected Green vote share easily covers the projected Tory majority. In the other, Stroud, it’s making the outcome a whole lot closer than it might otherwise be.
Of course, not every Green voter is someone who would otherwise vote Labour. I expect there are a lot of people in there who otherwise wouldn’t bother to vote, as well as a lot of ex-Lib Dems. All the same, I think the Labour challengers in each of these seats will be pushing a “Vote Green, Get Tory” message, and I don’t think anyone could really blame them for that.
You can find our odds on every GB constituency here.
