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Election 2015: Betting markets give Tory Budget two thumbs up

| 22.03.2015

It’s taken a while to come about, but the Conservative party finally seem to be benefiting from some semblance of an incumbency bounce ahead of May’s eagerly awaited General Election.

Last week, we flagged up the 4/5 on offer about David Cameron still being Prime Minister by the next Queen’s speech, citing his skillful manipulation of the televised debates negotiations, increasing worries about defence, and the Labour party’s problems in Scotland as reasons behind a Tory bump in the polls.

That eventuality was cut to 4/6 following George Osborne’s incredibly dull last Budget before the election.

In the Times, Tim Montgomery said of the Budget ‘the Crosbyisation of the Conservative party has advanced another step’, in reference to Cameron’s election adviser Lynton Crosby, and not in a good way.

Still, the Australian is an exceptionally experienced campaigner and his ‘get the barnacles off the boat’ philosophy makes sense with the Conservatives looking to shore up their base.

Ladbrokes’ head of political odds Matthew Shaddick thinks Osborne has succeeded in giving his party a Budget boost, for a while at least.

Shaddick wrote in his politicalbookie.com blog:

“As soon as the Chancellor stood up on Wednesday, we started seeing a lot of money on the Tories, in particular on them gaining a majority.

“Several four figure bets forced the price in from 5/1 to 9/2. We also had a shop customer in Wiltshire turn up with £4,500 in cash this morning to back Tory most seats at 4/9.”

Some caution was urged later on in the post:

“If the net effect were to leave the Tories a point or two better off than before, that would be great news for the Chancellor. My guess would be that it won’t make that much difference.”

Listen to the below podcast from Matthew before making your wagers.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.

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Alex Fortune