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Lots of reasons to ‘believe’ in Russia to win Eurovision

| 22.05.2015

The last and only time that Russia have celebrated Eurovision victory was in 2008 when Dima Bilan won at the second time of asking with the song ‘Believe’. He had previously finished second in 2006.

It could be significant then that their 2015 entry ‘A Million Voices’ has the phrase ‘We Believe’ repeated consistently during its verse.

This isn’t the only similarity between the two entrants, with another being their promising positions in the running order.

Russia’s previous victory came from the penultimate spot in the line-up, with a late position believed to be advantageous because it is more memorable to voters.

Polina Gagarina will perform in the third-last spot in 2015 and this could arguably be known as the ‘pimp slot’ based on the last four editions of Eurovision.

The worst finish in this period for a performer in this position is fourth, although it has never produced the winner.

This could be the year for this to change and after a run of three consecutive top-seven finishes, Russia are well-priced at 10/3 to win Eurovision again.

Each of the last four winners have been positioned between 11 and 19 in the final running order, which is bad news for favourites Sweden. However, Nordic nations have won two of the last three renewals and four of the latest nine.

The country that has seen its price contract the most since the semi-finals is Belgium and a running position of 13th looks solid based on recent winners.

Less positive is that Belgium will follow another of the well-supported nations in Australia and this may be a negative to its memorability.

Meanwhile, Russia’s fairly anthemic track sits among a host of ballads and therefore should have less of a problem standing out.

Not that this is proven as being a reliable statistic, but the Russian entry has far more YouTube views than any of its rivals too.

For those wanting to play things safer in terms of their Eurovision betting, the 1/5 on Russia finishing in the top five seems like free money.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.

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Craig Kemp

Craig has written for Ladbrokes since the 2010 World Cup, having previously gained a Media & Sports Journalism degree and contributed to publications including the Racing Post. His main areas of interest are horse racing and UFC, but he is also an avid X Factor gambler and likes nothing more than indulging in a spot of Hip Hop Karaoke.