Girls a better bet than boys to be X Factor winning category

Between series four and series eight, love for the overs category on the X Factor seemed in short supply.

Only Olly Murs, who had just turned 25 and was competing in the over 25 category, reached a final in this period, when second to Joe McElderry in series six.

Christopher Maloney put the overs back on the map when third in series nine, albeit seemingly against the intentions of show producers, before Sam Bailey and Ben Haenow have since provided back-to-back victories. Fleur East was second last year too.

However, there seems to have been a general shift when it comes to the upcoming series to give it a more youthful feel.

Host Dermot O’Leary has been replaced by Murs and Caroline Flack, pensioner of the voting panel Louis Walsh has been ditched for Radio 1 host Nick Grimshaw and Rita Ora is certainly more current than Spice Girl Mel B.

Even the new TV advert to promote the latest series has a greater fun feel than others of days gone by. A way of viewing these decisions is that one of the leading producer goals is to avoid another older victor. It is 3/1 that the overs win this X Factor series.

Meanwhile, the decision to include Olly and Ora in particular suggests the young female demographic are being targeted to watch the show in greater numbers.

This could swing either way in terms of the gender of the young winner, but one of the key talking points of the adverts so far has been whether the next One Direction can be found.

Therefore, there could be strong competition between a boyband and a teenage heartthrob for the girl vote, with competition likely to be minimal for those girls wanting to vote for the same sex.

It’s now three series without a female finalist from the girls camp despite Ella Henderson and Tamera Foster being largely prominent in the live-show betting.

Thanks to Leona Lewis and Alexandra Burke, the younger female has a positive success rate in turning show success to chart hits and after the cycle of the older acts going from final nobodies to regular winners, this is the year of the next chapter of the girls.

It is 2/1 in the X Factor betting that the winning category is the girls for the first time in seven series.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.

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