King of Stats: We’re finding you Lucky Beggars a York winner
Published:
York’s Ebor Festival provides a rare treat during the week, with the action on the Knavesmire kicking off with a fiendishly difficult five furlong spring handicap.
The Symphony Group Stakes has only been run six times, but already we can see patterns emerging from previous winners, and the perfect profile for the race is beginning to emerge.
Using the stats to crunch the numbers, we think we may have picked out a solid each-way bet in the opening race of the week, with a man who will be eyeing up even bigger success later in the day on board.
Here are seven key trends to help you narrow down your search for the winner…
The stats that matter…
- – 21 of the 22 horses to place in the race were aged four, five or six
- – Horses drawn in double figure stalls have won five of six runnings (three coming from 15)
- – Just 29 per cent of horses to make the frame were placed on their previous start
- – No winner had previously won more than five handicaps
- – Five of the six victors had at least placed at York
- – Of the horses to place in the contest 72 per cent carried at least 9st
- – Of the six previous winners five were rated between 92 and 100
One horse that ticks every one of those boxes is Charlie Hills’ Lucky Beggar, including the fact that he will be berthed in the seemingly talismanic stall 15.
The five-year-old has been running well in defeat this season, but in failing to get his head in front has seen his handicap mark drop to 4lbs lower than his last winning mark.
He may not have handled the track particularly well on his last two runs at Goodwood and Chester, but put in admirable efforts nonetheless.
A return to York’s galloping straight course can spark some more life into him.
The grey was beaten just a nose in a conditions event over course and distance two years ago, and was only 3l behind subsequent Prix De L’Abbaye winner in last year’s City Walls Stakes at the course.
With Frankie Dettori on board, a man who will be eyeing up the day’s feature with Golden Horn, the four-time winner can put in a big performance and prove the stats right.
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All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.
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