King of Stats: Five simple steps to find the Doncaster Cup winner
Staying power in abundance is what’s needed to claim the gruelling test that is the 2m2f Doncaster Cup, but finding the winner needn’t be such a slog.
A field of 11 is set to contest Friday’s feature on Town Moor, and with five simple steps we can whittle them down to our selection.
Through looking at the winners of the Group 2 contest in the past decade or two, a few criteria stand out to aid us.
Every winner since 1994 had run between two and six times that season
A balance needs to be struck between being fully wound up for this testing race and having had a hard season if previous renewals are to go on.
Nine of the 11 tick this opening box, primed to strike. Unfortunately for Kalann and Rod Millman’s Taws they are the two that do not and are scratched off our list.
Nine of the last 10 winners had already won a Class 1 race
Form is temporary, class is permanent is a phrase that gets bandied about all too often, but it bodes true here, with Saddlers Risk the only victor winning outside of handicap company for the first time in the last decade.
This trims down the shortlist considerably, the improving handicapper Fun Mac and Ascot winner Clondaw Warrior, Chester Cup victor Suegioo, and the consistent pair of Seamour and William of Orange the ones omitted.
Only two of the last 13 winners had not run in either the Lonsdale Cup, Goodwood Cup or Ascot Gold Cup that season
It looks as if taking in one of the other top staying races to prepare for this action at Donny is key to finding the winner.
Simenon may have been last in the Lonsdale Cup, but he was there, while Pallasator was fourth in the Goodwood Cup, while Havana Beat took in the Ascot Gold Cup. Times Up did neither and gets the shove.
Just one winner since 2002 was priced at bigger than 7/1
We’d love to push you in the way of a big priced winner, but with dead-heating Kasthari in 2004 obliging at 14/1 the only winner at bigger than 7/1 in 13 years we have to focus near the top of the market.
Havana Beat looks like his best days are behind him, and as such is priced up at around the 14/1 mark, meaning that he is the one to fall down at the penultimate stage.
Eight of the last 10 winners were sired by a horse with a stamina index of at least 10.8f
The old playground adage of boys squabbling over whose dad was the hardest is what settles our decision here.
The importance of being sired by a stallion that produces battle-hardened stayers is key for this 2m2f marathon.
And while Simenon’s sire Marju was a decent horse, his best performances were over middle distance, and his subsequent stamina index of 9.2f doesn’t make the grade here.
Instead son of Motivator Pallasator is taken to bag a Group race success at the sixth attempt and get a win in the bag for the trends.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.
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